Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x73a4…6692
sports · 638 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$175 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$207 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses106 / 509
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions23
Markets (closed)615 / 638
History coverage66d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 23 History 615 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 54¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 81¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 94¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No 75¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+24%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-70%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$37 -73%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Democrats (D) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 02 $24 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $4 +$4 +101%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 16 $24 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 16 $2 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 May 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 10 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 08 $4 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 06 $4 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 05 $16 +$2 +10%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 05 $12 −$6 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Serie A league? May 05 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? May 05 $5 $0 -8%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? May 05 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 22 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$94
other 24% −$67
crypto 10% −$16
politics 6% −$5
world 6% −$11
weather 6% −$11
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 4h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 31h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.4% -23.5% 38% 12% -13.9%
≤30d 27 -46.1% -51.2% 19% 7% -21.2%
≤90d 615 -7.0% -15.9% 17% 8% -14.3%
all 615 -7.0% -15.9% 17% 8% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 8% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 6% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 4% -30.0%
20% -38.0% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.12 · official $106.57 · 2775 history records