Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x73a6…6520 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized +$69 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$857per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$4,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$198
sports 16% +$1,818
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -23.2% -30.5% 42% 25% +7.1%
≤30d 12 -23.2% -30.5% 42% 25% +7.1%
≤90d 12 -23.2% -30.5% 42% 25% +7.1%
all 12 -23.2% -30.5% 42% 25% +7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.5% 25% +7.1%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 8% -3.2%
15% -43.2% 8% -12.5%
20% -48.8% 8% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$468 vs −$88 · ×5.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4,111
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$857
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $1,600 $1,589 −$11 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1,000 $969 −$31 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,000 $944 −$56 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $617 $609 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $188 −$183 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $110 −$108 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,070 +$1,926 +93%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $756 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,684 +$260 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,735 −$54 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,085 +$43 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $533 +$73 +14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$36 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $544 −$46 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $1,612 26m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,025 36m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,027 43m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $58 50m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $130 54m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 27¢ $110 55m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3,996 57m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $628 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2,070 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 25¢ $753 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 92¢ $1,944 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $756 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 79¢ $1,684 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 70¢ $1,680 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $1,735 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $171 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $55 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $256 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $68 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,111.21 · official $4,111.21 (match) · 45 history records