Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73aa…dd36 world 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$103 (+1%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%40W / 57L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$67
14 days+$53
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$97
other 24% +$9
politics 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.5% -3.7% 50% 25% -5.3%
≤30d 30 +1.4% -8.2% 43% 10% -7.8%
≤90d 38 +1.2% -8.5% 42% 11% -8.7%
all 97 +5.6% -4.5% 41% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 6% -8.6%
10% -13.6% 3% -17.4%
15% -22.0% 1% -25.4%
20% -29.6% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.07 per $1 lost it wins $4.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses40 / 57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage456d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $47 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $63 +$16 +25%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $325 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $238 +$49 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $236 −$4 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $237 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $70 +$5 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $204 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $239 −$11 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $243 −$3 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $221 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $246 −$3 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $201 +$9 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $184 −$2 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $55 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $184 +$3 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $308 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $171 +$3 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $188 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $187 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $113 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $9 −$1 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $181 +$7 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $139 +$16 +11%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $148 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $158 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $30 +$8 +28%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $468 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $3,339 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $170 +$4 +2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $1,057 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 12 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 13 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 27m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $64 29h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $63 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $108 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $232 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $236 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $237 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $237 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $70 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $21 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records