Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73b2…67d1 crypto 479 markets active 5d ago coverage 644d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,822 (-5%) realized −$4,822 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate72%345W / 133L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$506
14 days−$160
30 days−$2,667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$2,688
politics 11% −$151
other 5% −$2,806
sports 1% −$683
world 1% +$1,041
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -10.9% -19.4% 60% 20% -33.7%
≤30d 433 -6.4% -15.4% 77% 16% -12.3%
≤90d 433 -6.4% -15.4% 77% 16% -12.3%
all 478 -10.1% -18.6% 72% 16% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 16% -14.1%
10% -26.4% 9% -22.4%
15% -33.5% 5% -29.9%
20% -40.1% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$104 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

644d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$4,822
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses345 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)478 / 479
History coverage644d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $464 −$463 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $350 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $450 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $151 −$45 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $205 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $231 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $425 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $326 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $425 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 09 $105 +$262 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $125 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $126 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $181 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $130 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $131 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $131 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $156 −$19 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 03 $135 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $135 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 02 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 02 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $110 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 57¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $64 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.07 · official $20.07 (match) · 2144 history records