Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
73 0x73b7…c67c crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$22
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.7% -10.2% 61% 50% -2.6%
≤30d 18 -0.7% -10.2% 61% 50% -2.6%
≤90d 18 -0.7% -10.2% 61% 50% -2.6%
all 18 -0.7% -10.2% 61% 50% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 50% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 44% -12.0%
15% -26.6% 33% -20.5%
20% -33.8% 22% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$20 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21 BUY 1¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records