Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73b7…7933 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$474 (-16%) realized −$474 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$113
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$261
sports 6% −$74
other 1% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +25.5% +13.5% 60% 60% -13.7%
≤30d 13 -12.2% -20.6% 46% 38% -20.1%
≤90d 33 -56.6% -60.7% 21% 15% -34.0%
all 61 -9.3% -17.9% 44% 36% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 36% -18.2%
10% -25.8% 31% -26.1%
15% -32.9% 23% -33.2%
20% -39.5% 15% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage172d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 24 $119 +$47 +40%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $300 +$143 +48%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $30 +$56 +184%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $234 −$167 -72%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 24 $164 −$118 -72%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $54 +$12 +23%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 08 $33 −$16 -47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 22 $77 −$12 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 22 $32 −$26 -81%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 22 $40 −$17 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 4? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 31 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 31 $47 −$34 -73%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 12? Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 12-18? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 2? Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 2? Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Mar 13 $0 +$1 +300%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $84 −$16 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 09 $103 −$18 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $22 +$36 +165%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 06 $48 +$21 +44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? Mar 06 $11 +$17 +154%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $89 +$30 +34%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Mar 04 $137 +$8 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $20 +$40 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 03 $1 +$2 +205%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Mar 03 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 28 $136 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 24 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 23 $140 +$44 +31%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Feb 23 $86 +$31 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 16-22? Feb 22 $85 −$21 -24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 16-22? Feb 22 $65 −$16 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $34 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 23m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 34m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $83 35m
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 44¢ $444 56m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $74 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 5¢ $66 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $56 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 30¢ $154 9h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 12h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 39h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $158 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records