Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:50:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73c0…4aa3 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$23,570 (+191%) realized +$23,583 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%24W / 60L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$556
14 days+$878
30 days+$23,418
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,550
world 15% +$21,778
crypto 13% −$795
other 10% +$950
economics 1% −$91
politics 1% −$67
tech 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -32.4% -38.8% 23% 23% -4.0%
≤30d 55 +9.3% -1.1% 29% 29% +68.3%
≤90d 84 -9.9% -18.5% 29% 27% +58.6%
all 84 -9.9% -18.5% 29% 27% +58.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 27% +58.6%
10% -26.3% 26% +43.5%
15% -33.4% 24% +29.6%
20% -39.9% 23% +16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +190% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +190% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,263 vs −$117 · ×10.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$23,583
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage48d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $27 $22 −$6 (-20%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Yes $17 $10 −$7 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $618 −$618 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $480 −$480 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $480 −$480 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $557 +$1,536 +276%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $611 −$600 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $472 +$527 +112%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $511 +$1,141 +224%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $399 −$390 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $4 +$6 +150%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 +$55 +28%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $250 −$153 -61%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $109 −$106 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $255 +$989 +388%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $254 +$278 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $250 +$162 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $153 +$302 +198%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $499 −$499 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 16 $420 −$420 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $398 +$1,543 +388%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $53 −$51 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $225 −$220 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $500 +$569 +114%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $249 −$246 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 +$13 +118%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $48 −$37 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $618 9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $480 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $205 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $0 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $89 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $152 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 10h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $49 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $239 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $241 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,093 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $557 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $611 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,652 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $172 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $177 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $118 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $511 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 33h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $399 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 64¢ $10 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 25¢ $4 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $51 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.43 · official $31.43 (match) · 172 history records