Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c1…28f3 other 208 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$419 (-13%) realized −$399 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day47.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$282
14 days−$440
30 days−$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$202
politics 23% −$85
world 20% −$48
tech 8% −$75
finance 7% −$22
sports 7% −$27
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -14.4% -22.6% 7% 1% -22.1%
≤30d 203 -16.3% -24.3% 7% 1% -22.6%
≤90d 203 -16.3% -24.3% 7% 1% -22.6%
all 203 -16.3% -24.3% 7% 1% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 1% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 0% -30.0%
15% -38.1% 0% -36.7%
20% -44.2% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 188
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)203 / 208
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day47.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+37%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 48¢ 14¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-72%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 16¢ 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 -3%
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? Jun 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? Jun 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 3 Jun 17 $28 −$8 -29%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $37 −$5 -15%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -26%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Jun 17 $24 −$5 -19%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 17 $17 −$6 -34%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Jun 17 $17 −$4 -22%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $44 −$3 -6%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 17 $22 −$2 -7%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $17 −$5 -32%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 17 $8 −$1 -7%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Sw Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 17 $7 $0 -3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -36%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$11 -60%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 17 $22 $0 -2%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedi Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 16 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIF Jun 16 $22 −$14 -64%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 16 $48 −$12 -24%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $11 −$3 -25%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $92 −$17 -18%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -10%
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvia Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $6 $0 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $24 −$4 -16%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 36m
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36m
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 39m
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 50m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 9¢ $0 1h
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia SELL No 15¢ $3 1h
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 15¢ $3 1h
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 20¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $6 3h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3h
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 3h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 3h
Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 3h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Will Robert Smullen be the Republican nominee for NY-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4h
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by December 3 SELL Yes 33¢ $5 5h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 5h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will Darryn Peterson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 5h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $31.94 (match) · 702 history records