Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
73 0x73c1…df8a politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% $0
other 40% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage107d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $191 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 14 $95 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $96 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $96 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $192 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $95 5d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $95 17d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $95 18d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $95 24d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $95 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 32d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 33d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 35d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $95 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $95 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $95 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $95 39d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 39d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 40d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $96 64d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $96 64d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $96 66d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $96 66d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $96 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $96 70d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $96 76d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $96 76d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $96 80d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $96 80d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records