Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c3…fd98 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$491 (-12%) realized −$490 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$464
other 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 42% -21.8%
≤30d 76 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 42% -21.8%
≤90d 76 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 42% -21.8%
all 76 -11.9% -20.3% 53% 42% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 42% -21.8%
10% -27.9% 26% -29.3%
15% -34.9% 20% -36.1%
20% -41.3% 18% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$39 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$490
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 36
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)76 / 81
History coverage4d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 66¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
ITF Taipei: Haruka Kaji vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 20 $50 +$7 +13%
Set Handicap: Khomutsianskaya (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez Jun 19 $50 +$11 +23%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Ida Wobker vs. Thea Frodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Set Handicap: Wolf (-1.5) vs Langmo (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $39 +$5 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Jun 18 $50 −$50 -99%
Noskova vs. Parry: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $51 +$44 +86%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $50 +$9 +18%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 18 $50 −$19 -39%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 18 $51 −$11 -22%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $55 −$49 -89%
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
Set Handicap: Kitahara (-1.5) vs Lin (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
ITF Bolszewo: Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Amy Sucha Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Bolszewo: Anna Kmiecik vs Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Lourinha: Patrick Schoen vs Vasco Leote Prata Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $50 +$20 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 1h
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 1h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 62¢ $51 1h
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 79¢ $5 3h
ITF Taipei: Haruka Kaji vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Haruka Kaji 88¢ $50 7h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $51 7h
Set Handicap: Khomutsianskaya (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) BUY Wang 62¢ $51 7h
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki BUY Bryce Nakashima 58¢ $51 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $51 19h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $50 20h
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Georgii Kravchenko 75¢ $50 20h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Collignon 41¢ $51 21h
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) BUY Frodin 68¢ $50 23h
Ida Wobker vs. Thea Frodin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $51 23h
ITF Lourinha: Oscar Andres Martinez De Freitas vs Pablo Martinez Gomez BUY Pablo Martinez Gomez 81¢ $50 23h
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun BUY Nikita Mashtakov 89¢ $50 24h
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Sorger BUY Sebastian Sorger 35¢ $12 25h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) BUY Shelton 65¢ $51 25h
Set Handicap: Wolf (-1.5) vs Langmo (+1.5) BUY Wolf 53¢ $51 27h
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 49¢ $51 27h
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov BUY Nikolai Barsukov 62¢ $51 29h
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 56¢ $51 31h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 82¢ $50 31h
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell BUY Kenta Miyoshi 89¢ $39 32h
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina BUY Alina Shcherbinina 93¢ $50 39h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $50 42h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 81¢ $50 45h
ITF San Gregorio: Agnese Gentili vs Natalija Senic BUY Natalija Senic 94¢ $50 47h
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $50 2d
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva BUY Zhibek Kulambayeva 84¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.97 · official $247.97 (match) · 134 history records