Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c6…42c4 weather 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$270 (-4%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate78%25W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$3
other 30% +$6
world 8% −$293
sports 7% +$13
weather 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 20 -4.0% -13.2% 80% 5% -15.7%
all 32 -2.4% -11.7% 78% 3% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -13.5%
10% -20.1% 0% -21.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -29.3%
20% -34.9% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$74 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage137d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 22? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 22? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $293 −$293 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $823 +$4 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $719 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $402 +$2 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $365 +$2 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $67 +$11 +16%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $361 −$2 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $21 $0 +2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $225 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $628 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $857 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $226 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 14 $13 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February? Mar 05 $126 $0 +0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Feb 28 $338 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 15 $78 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 15 $81 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $640 end of January? Feb 15 $91 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 25d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $6 25d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $3 25d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 25d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 57d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $278 57d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $344 59d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $74 60d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $42 61d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $30 61d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $5 61d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $265 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 61d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.08 · official $50.08 (match) · 345 history records