Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c7…1ad3 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$75 (+5%) realized +$104 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$99
world 20% −$71
other 17% −$85
crypto 6% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 40% -0.8%
≤30d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 40% -0.8%
≤90d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 40% -0.8%
all 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 40% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 40% -0.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -10.3%
15% -25.6% 28% -18.9%
20% -32.9% 28% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized+$104
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions20
Markets (closed)25 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 64¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 47¢ 96¢ $23 $47 +$24 (+103%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 44¢ 100¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+126%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 75¢ 100¢ $31 $41 +$10 (+33%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 93¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Natus Vincere 38¢ 36¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $27 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 52¢ 100¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+92%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 60¢ 24¢ $31 $13 −$18 (-59%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 95¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? No 95¢ 92¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 81¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 54¢ 51¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 93¢ 80¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 41¢ $75 $9 −$66 (-88%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $9 $3 −$5 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $11 +$20 +186%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $27 +$40 +146%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -22%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$9 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $11 +$3 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$51 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$20 +213%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $115 −$53 -46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $84 +$66 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $49 +$3 +6%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $52 +$40 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$7 +33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $82 +$147 +179%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 95¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $9 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $15 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $16 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $12 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $8 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $12 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $39 3h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 34¢ $11 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 72¢ $12 4h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $12 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $13 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY No 93¢ $14 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $24 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $16 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $18 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $18 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $31 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $23 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $24 10h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $26 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $27 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $502.47 · official $502.47 (match) · 98 history records