Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c8…4914 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$4
politics 14% −$3
other 14% −$1
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 11 -1.4% -10.8% 9% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -1.4% -10.8% 9% 0% -10.3%
all 36 -3.3% -12.5% 36% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage459d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $32 −$2 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $33 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 20 $64 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $3 $0 -8%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $5 $0 -9%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 27 $7 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or more in April? May 08 $26 $0 +1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 25? Apr 20 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $3 −$3 -83%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $14 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $15 7h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $25 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $7 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $33 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $32 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $32 24h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $33 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $33 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $33 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $34 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $30 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $32 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $12 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $20 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $27 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $6 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $32 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $16 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.35 · official $28.35 (match) · 128 history records