Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
73 0x73c8…8cd8 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4,794 (+38%) realized +$4,810 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +129% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +107% what you keep after slip
Net edge+107%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$966
7 days+$966
14 days+$966
30 days+$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$4,604
finance 6% −$64
tech 4% +$18
crypto 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+107.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% +35.7%
≤30d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% +35.7%
≤90d 18 +191.4% +163.7% 50% 50% +42.6%
all 25 +129.0% +107.2% 44% 40% +25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +107.2% 40% +25.8%
10% +87.4% 40% +13.7%
15% +69.3% 36% +2.7%
20% +52.7% 32% -7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +129% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$629) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +254% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$582 vs −$132 · ×4.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized+$4,810
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage119d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $430 $478 +$48 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $470 $406 −$64 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $430 +$572 +133%
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 23 $123 −$98 -80%
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $1,648 +$523 +32%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 23 $33 −$31 -94%
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? May 01 $39 −$23 -59%
MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $179 −$31 -17%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 30 $205 −$162 -79%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 30 $1,563 −$183 -12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $685 −$189 -28%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 27 $44 +$63 +143%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 22 $53 +$1,328 +2494%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $78 +$887 +1131%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 21 $239 +$602 +252%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 21 $1,879 +$1,249 +66%
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch? Apr 21 $200 −$180 -90%
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 20 $15 −$6 -40%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 31 $177 +$286 +161%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 31 $1,097 +$505 +46%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 07 $88 −$73 -83%
Katana FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 07 $1,106 −$767 -69%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $70 −$70 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Mar 02 $460 −$15 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $80 −$24 -30%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $217 +$13 +6%
Fabric FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 28 $629 +$374 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $68 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $86 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 57¢ $68 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 60¢ $76 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 61¢ $607 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $84 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 37¢ $111 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $76 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 38¢ $114 14h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 43¢ $129 14h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 15h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 90¢ $38 15h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 90¢ $52 16h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 21h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 23h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 24h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 25h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 25h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $70 25h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,071 26h
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 28h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 9¢ $3 28h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $66 30h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 31h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $884.64 · official $884.64 (match) · 270 history records