Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x73c9…771d other 89 markets active 3d ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%33W / 55L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% $0
world 32% +$1
other 19% −$5
sports 7% +$23
economics 2% +$7
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.3% -7.5% 38% 12% -9.2%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 32% 3% -9.3%
all 88 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses33 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage492d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $319 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $82 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $154 −$2 -2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $171 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $305 −$5 -2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $168 +$2 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $176 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $144 +$2 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $290 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $144 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $146 −$7 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $304 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $206 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $152 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $137 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $178 −$2 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $707 +$19 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $173 +$8 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $1,172 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $1,064 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $706 +$4 +1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,043 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,147 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 04 $19 −$1 -8%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $7 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 25 $6 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $101 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $51 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $144 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $154 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $154 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $102 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $106 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $44 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $126 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $168 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $48 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records