Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
73 0x73c9…5eb1 crypto 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,018 (-4%) realized −$2,979 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%125W / 83L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$485est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,294
7 days−$3,697
14 days−$3,698
30 days−$3,698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$3,948
other 44% −$7,686
crypto 8% +$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.7% -24.6% 55% 55% +19.0%
≤30d 12 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 50% +19.0%
≤90d 12 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 50% +19.0%
all 208 +5.5% -4.6% 60% 60% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 60% +15.6%
10% -13.7% 60% +4.5%
15% -22.0% 60% -5.6%
20% -29.7% 53% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$257 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$4,906
Realized−$2,979
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses125 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$485
Open positions1
Markets (closed)208 / 209
History coverage213d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 63¢ 62¢ $4,945 $4,905 −$39 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $4,803 −$3,714 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,025 −$4,439 -88%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $3,028 +$1,188 +39%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $4,522 +$3,529 +78%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $6,520 −$1,857 -28%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,038 −$1,938 -95%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15,598 −$6,817 -44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,093 +$5,509 +55%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3,532 +$1,534 +43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2,221 +$1,020 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5,248 +$2,288 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 07 $1 $0 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 07 $2 +$1 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Dec 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Dec 07 $2 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Dec 07 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 63¢ $5,000 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 11¢ $991 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4,803 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $586 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $4 20h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $4,212 20h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5,025 21h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $3,028 21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4,522 38h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $4,523 40h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6,520 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $61 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $2,038 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $8,473 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15,598 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $10,093 4d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3,532 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2,221 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $5,248 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 199d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,906.22 · official $4,905.48 (match) · 352 history records