Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73c9…7b88 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$38
sports 21% −$16
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$4
culture 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage128d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $822 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $107 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $142 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $758 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $550 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $618 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $306 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $192 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $191 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $178 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $269 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $340 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $824 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $177 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $51 4h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $51 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 8h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 10h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 11h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 14h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 18h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 20h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 21h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 24h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 28h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 30h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 31h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 36h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 37h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 41h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 43h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 45h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 47h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1330 history records