Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
73 0x73ca…6b6c politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,106 (-2%) realized −$2,108 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$856per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$60
other 37% −$153
sports 12% −$1,121
world 3% −$784
economics 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 58 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -11.7% -20.1% 16% 8% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 8% -11.3%
10% -27.7% 8% -19.8%
15% -34.7% 6% -27.5%
20% -41.1% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,048) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,046
Realized−$2,108
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage136d
Avg bet$856
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $578 $581 +$3 (+0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $465 $465 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $2,558 −$3 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $467 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,551 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $471 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,668 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,761 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 03 $446 $0 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $477 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $571 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,200 −$4 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,314 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,298 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,523 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $499 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $482 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $2,570 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $2,549 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,437 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 05 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $489 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $465 1h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $467 3h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $467 6h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $492 22h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $493 23h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $466 26h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $467 29h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $468 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $469 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $466 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $467 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $468 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $468 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $470 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $471 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $578 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 14d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,052 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,053 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 15d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $910 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $949 15d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $951 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $874 21d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $821 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $822 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,046.00 · official $1,046.00 (match) · 439 history records