Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73cc…7154 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 745d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,832 (-57%) realized −$1,823 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate23%19W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$1,422
economics 12% −$268
other 7% −$59
politics 3% −$40
world 2% −$67
sports 1% +$8
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +4.4% -5.5% 33% 33% -20.7%
≤90d 6 +4.4% -5.5% 33% 33% -20.7%
all 81 -38.5% -44.4% 23% 19% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 19% -61.8%
10% -49.7% 17% -65.4%
15% -54.5% 16% -68.8%
20% -59.0% 14% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$39 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

745d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,823
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses19 / 62
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage745d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$8 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Mar 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Feb 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 28 $6 +$14 +238%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025? Feb 28 $1 $0 +10%
US recession in 2025? Feb 28 $7 −$2 -24%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Feb 28 $3 +$2 +56%
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025? Feb 28 $8 −$1 -13%
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Feb 28 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Sung Jinwoo win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? Oct 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Oct 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? Oct 15 $15 +$23 +156%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Maomao win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Frieren win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump signs national abortion ban? May 03 $25 −$19 -77%
$BTC dips below $50k before October? May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on India next? May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by February 28? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24? May 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Was JFK assassination an inside job? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Greece win Gold in Men's Basketball? May 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24? May 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6? May 03 $22 −$22 -100%
China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 5d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 108d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 113d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $10 113d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 115d
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? BUY Israel 65¢ $5 115d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 115d
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? BUY SpaceX 50¢ $8 115d
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? BUY SpaceX 50¢ $2 115d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 28? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 115d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 115d
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition BUY Yes 29¢ $6 115d
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 115d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 115d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $4 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 342d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.82 · official $48.82 (match) · 258 history records