Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73ce…9628 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$3
other 31% $0
politics 6% −$1
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +1.9% -7.8% 31% 15% -10.6%
all 32 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -10.2%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.8%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $4 $0 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $56 −$6 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $12 +$3 +29%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $2 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bronny score a point against the Celtics? Mar 11 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 93¢ $26 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $26 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $29 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $29 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $19 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $18 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $26 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $26 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $14 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $1 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $27 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $36 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 40¢ $15 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 31¢ $10 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records