Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x73ce…c1f5 politics 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$39 (+0%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$28
politics 39% −$22
sports 6% +$80
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 124 +2.0% -7.7% 7% 6% -9.5%
all 130 +2.5% -7.2% 8% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 5% -18.1%
15% -24.2% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$3 · ×11.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage113d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $323 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $424 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $311 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $344 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $288 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $314 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $334 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $274 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $355 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $317 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $340 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $876 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $342 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $229 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $322 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $343 +$315 +92%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $291 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $763 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 26 $363 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $343 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $290 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $60 4d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $311 22d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $311 22d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $344 23d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $344 23d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 24d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $279 24d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $288 24d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $288 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $352 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 26d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $314 26d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $314 28d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $334 28d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $334 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 371 history records