Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73cf…1227 other 8 markets active 7d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$539 (-71%) realized −$539 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$552
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -71.9% -74.6% 0% 0% -79.8%
≤30d 8 +23.3% +11.5% 12% 12% -76.2%
≤90d 8 +23.3% +11.5% 12% 12% -76.2%
all 8 +23.3% +11.5% 12% 12% -76.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.5% 12% -76.2%
10% +0.9% 12% -78.4%
15% -8.9% 12% -80.5%
20% -17.8% 12% -82.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$100 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$539
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $92 −$89 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $169 −$165 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $19 +$146 +785%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $141 −$118 -84%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $297 −$295 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $168 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 9d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 9d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $123 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $297 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records