Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d2…f9b7 weather 515 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (322 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53,392 (-65%) realized −$52,676 · open −$716
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%173W / 130L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day321.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$33,411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1,412
world 22% +$1,351
weather 15% −$105
tech 9% −$313
politics 9% −$469
finance 6% +$1,442
crypto 1% +$21
economics 1% −$32
culture 1% +$181
sports 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (322 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 40% -6.8%
≤30d 303 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 39% -7.1%
≤90d 303 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 39% -7.1%
all 303 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover321.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 39% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 29% -16.0%
15% -22.2% 22% -24.1%
20% -29.9% 16% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$46 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$33,411
Realized−$52,676
Unrealized−$716
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses173 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions247
Markets (closed)303 / 515
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$159
Trades / day321.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 247 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $1,710 $1,690 −$20 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 46¢ 78¢ $920 $1,551 +$631 (+69%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 70¢ $1,242 $1,200 −$43 (-3%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $960 $990 +$30 (+3%)
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? No 84¢ 92¢ $593 $653 +$60 (+10%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 83¢ 76¢ $664 $612 −$52 (-8%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No 88¢ 84¢ $564 $538 −$26 (-5%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 87¢ 86¢ $522 $519 −$3 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $444 $507 +$63 (+14%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 86¢ 95¢ $431 $478 +$46 (+11%)
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 79¢ $516 $474 −$42 (-8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $431 $441 +$9 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%? No 86¢ 84¢ $435 $423 −$13 (-3%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $400 $395 −$5 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 38¢ $640 $385 −$255 (-40%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? No 80¢ 76¢ $400 $380 −$20 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? No 82¢ 78¢ $395 $374 −$22 (-5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $345 $334 −$11 (-3%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 76¢ $352 $302 −$50 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 100¢ $150 $300 +$150 (+100%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? No 66¢ 56¢ $343 $294 −$49 (-14%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 61¢ 94¢ $182 $284 +$102 (+56%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 59¢ 46¢ $354 $279 −$75 (-21%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 63¢ 66¢ $252 $266 +$14 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 67¢ 88¢ $201 $262 +$62 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $73 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $44 +$7 +16%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Jun 17 $327 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $18 +$14 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $33 +$13 +41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 17 $522 +$55 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? Jun 17 $132 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $67 +$33 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $65 +$35 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 16? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Jeff Pixley be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $150 −$149 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $1,181 −$137 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $57 +$43 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $43 +$57 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $27 +$11 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $67 −$4 -6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $308 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $59 +$41 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $71 −$12 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $66 −$12 -18%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $261 +$39 +15%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 17 $69 −$10 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 16 $43 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $160 3m
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 87¢ $174 4m
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 84¢ $168 12m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 15m
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 84¢ $168 32m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $5 40m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $5 46m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $7 58m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 77¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $7 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House SELL No 83¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 64¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $6 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 80¢ $160 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 69¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $40 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 61¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,411.10 · official $33,403.24 (match) · 3500 history records