Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73d4…dbd6 sports 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,551 (-3%) realized −$5,604 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%137W / 100L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$745per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$324est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$285
30 days+$1,228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$10,772
other 25% +$5,013
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -10.9%
≤30d 17 -14.8% -22.9% 47% 47% +0.5%
≤90d 68 -12.3% -20.6% 54% 54% -6.7%
all 237 -6.1% -15.0% 58% 56% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 56% -12.5%
10% -23.1% 53% -20.9%
15% -30.6% 46% -28.5%
20% -37.4% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,186) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$445 vs −$667 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$1,274
Realized−$5,604
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses137 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$324
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage251d
Avg bet$745
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Karolina Muchova 66¢ 68¢ $1,221 $1,274 +$53 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $654 +$579 +88%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $606 −$599 -99%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $119 −$118 -99%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $132 −$130 -99%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $54 +$78 +146%
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $847 −$696 -82%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $1,538 +$1,231 +80%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $436 +$108 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $741 −$629 -85%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $1,613 −$873 -54%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $998 +$615 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1,471 +$563 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $1,016 +$877 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $774 +$336 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $1,010 +$469 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $1,070 +$725 +68%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri May 26 $626 −$619 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys May 25 $26 −$26 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Rebecca Sramkova May 25 $20 +$6 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Cristina Bucsa May 25 $13 +$7 +59%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $208 −$195 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $135 +$73 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer May 24 $95 +$40 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $357 −$263 -74%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 24 $257 +$100 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $144 +$114 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs May 24 $101 +$43 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $78 −$77 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan May 24 $122 +$57 +47%
Cervia: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Mitchell Krueger May 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Katerina Siniakova May 18 $59 −$38 -65%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia (Doubles): Harrison/Skupski vs Arevalo/Pav May 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 09 $317 −$313 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agu May 09 $205 +$112 +54%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navone May 09 $135 +$70 +52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $83 +$52 +63%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Machac vs Daniil Medvedev May 09 $87 −$4 -5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 09 $75 +$12 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez May 08 $36 +$39 +108%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $26 +$10 +40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $151 −$131 -86%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Blockx May 08 $174 −$170 -97%
Francavilla: August Holmgren vs Max Schoenhaus May 08 $247 +$79 +32%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Damir Dzumhur May 08 $187 +$60 +32%
Francavilla: Ryan Seggerman vs Jay Clarke May 08 $108 −$106 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 08 $95 +$13 +14%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nuno Borges vs Rafael Jodar May 08 $66 +$27 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 61¢ $392 27m
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 68¢ $841 32m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic SELL Vilius Gaubas 92¢ $1,234 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 59¢ $606 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 48¢ $2 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 48¢ $652 3h
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 74¢ $27 11d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 49¢ $70 11d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 70¢ $119 13d
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 60¢ $132 13d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 40¢ $29 13d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 40¢ $20 13d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 39¢ $4 13d
Chisinau: Daniil Glinka vs Liam Broady BUY Daniil Glinka 44¢ $20 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 6¢ $151 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 32¢ $847 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Joao Fonseca 98¢ $850 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Joao Fonseca 48¢ $423 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen SELL Alex Michelsen 99¢ $544 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Alex Michelsen 80¢ $323 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 86¢ $1,919 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 49¢ $1,115 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Alex Michelsen 76¢ $114 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 10¢ $113 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $741 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik SELL Jakub Mensik 27¢ $740 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 57¢ $1,106 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 57¢ $507 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante 92¢ $1,613 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 56¢ $998 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,273.60 · official $1,273.60 (match) · 789 history records