Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:00:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d5…53bf sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized +$21 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$19
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -16.5% -24.5% 40% 40% +9.8%
≤30d 10 -16.5% -24.5% 40% 40% +9.8%
≤90d 10 -16.5% -24.5% 40% 40% +9.8%
all 10 -16.5% -24.5% 40% 40% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 40% +9.8%
10% -31.7% 40% -0.7%
15% -38.3% 40% -10.3%
20% -44.4% 40% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$18 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Scotland 58¢ 57¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 17¢ $66 $25 −$41 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $80 +$107 +134%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $72 −$61 -85%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $41 +$35 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $9 +$11 +124%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 +$9 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 58¢ $115 12m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $67 47m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 28¢ $33 50m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $49 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $187 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 7¢ $11 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 44¢ $72 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $80 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 20h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $41 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $6 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $9 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $9 30h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 56¢ $11 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.05 · official $138.05 (match) · 20 history records