Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73d7…11b2 crypto 758 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,223 (+4%) realized +$3,456 · open −$1,233
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%244W / 495L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$33
14 days+$585
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$5,215
other 11% −$1,213
finance 10% −$1,293
politics 5% −$36
crypto 3% −$129
culture 0% −$3
sports 0% −$20
weather 0% −$16
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -34.9% -41.1% 25% 15% -13.1%
≤30d 45 -3.1% -12.3% 31% 24% -2.2%
≤90d 390 -28.5% -35.3% 20% 17% -20.8%
all 739 -23.3% -30.6% 33% 25% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 25% -3.1%
10% -37.3% 19% -12.4%
15% -43.3% 17% -20.9%
20% -48.9% 15% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$20 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$1,951
Realized+$3,456
Unrealized−$1,233
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses244 / 495
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)739 / 758
History coverage135d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $1,512 $981 −$531 (-35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 52¢ 34¢ $400 $264 −$136 (-34%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $280 $250 −$30 (-11%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $168 $165 −$3 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $120 $104 −$16 (-13%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Yes $25 $32 +$7 (+26%)
Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $39 $26 −$13 (-32%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 25¢ $478 $18 −$460 (-96%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-18%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $12 $11 −$1 (-12%)
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? Yes $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes $19 $1 −$18 (-96%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 10¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 13¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 222 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? Jun 28 $32 −$3 -8%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $37 −$11 -28%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 +$3 +15%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $22 −$1 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 -15%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -19%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $480 +$20 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$7 -44%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $422 +$270 +64%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $2,201 −$689 -31%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $255 +$890 +348%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $960 +$247 +26%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $244 +$15 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 07 $204 −$60 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $111 −$111 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $190 −$54 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $95 +$83 +87%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? May 21 $102 −$51 -51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $763 −$31 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 21 $151 −$21 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes $20 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $41 7h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? BUY Yes $17 26h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 28? BUY Yes $15 27h
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26? BUY Yes $20 27h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $168 33h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes $25 2d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $25 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $8 2d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $500 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,950.51 · official $1,950.58 (match) · 2338 history records