Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x73dc…dde4
crypto · 6 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 37¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +31%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 59% −$2
sports 41% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 60¢ $9 4h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 20% -18.1%
≤30d 5 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 20% -18.1%
≤90d 5 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 20% -18.1%
all 5 -15.5% -23.5% 40% 20% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 20% -18.1%
10% -30.8% 20% -26.0%
15% -37.5% 0% -33.1%
20% -43.6% 0% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.74 · official $4.74 (match) · 14 history records