Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x73dd…1f06
weather · 1208 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$423 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$252 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$131
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses892 / 297
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1189 / 1208
History coverage79d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 19 History 1189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$1,671
14 days−$1,612
30 days−$1,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? No 98¢ 76¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 93¢ 70¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 96¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 94¢ 16¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 97¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 9? No 88¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 31? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? No 90¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? No 92¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 73% −$189
world 7% −$33
other 7% −$21
sports 5% −$15
crypto 4% −$1
politics 2% +$5
tech 1% −$5
finance 1% +$9
culture 1% −$21
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 41m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 42m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $7 12h
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 97¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 2 Scotland? BUY No 97¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 407 -50.5% -55.2% 46% 6% -58.4%
≤30d 708 -21.6% -29.1% 65% 17% -32.9%
≤90d 1189 -2.8% -12.0% 75% 28% -12.1%
all 1189 -2.8% -12.0% 75% 28% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 28% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 17% -20.5%
15% -28.1% 14% -28.2%
20% -35.2% 13% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.01 · official $131.01 (match) · 3500 history records