Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73e4…88e9 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$12
other 17% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% +$2
culture 3% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -13.8%
≤90d 12 -2.1% -11.4% 25% 0% -12.3%
all 32 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 6% -10.8%
10% -16.2% 3% -19.3%
15% -24.3% 3% -27.1%
20% -31.7% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage452d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $70 −$11 -15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $2 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 18 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $14 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $3 $0 +14%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $11 $0 +2%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 28 $2 +$4 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $29 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $4 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $25 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $20 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 17h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $1 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $21 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $8 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $19 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 72¢ $27 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $33 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $32 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $37 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 31d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $37 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $37 32d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 33d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $37 33d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 34d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.52 · official $28.36 (match) · 85 history records