Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73e5…4a8b sports 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 654d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%27W / 325L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$34
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$18
sports 31% −$13
other 25% −$49
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$10
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.5% 16% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 81 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 88 -1.0% -10.4% 7% 0% -10.2%
all 352 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

654d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses27 / 325
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage654d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $64 $64 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha Jun 18 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 17 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 17 $224 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $122 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 16 $73 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $63 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $122 −$5 -4%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $68 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 14 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $126 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $40 −$2 -5%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $290 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -3%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $52 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $153 −$2 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $63 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $156 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $49 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $49 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $65 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $17 2h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $17 9h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $62 9h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $63 14h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $65 15h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $65 20h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 20h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 26h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 33h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $0 33h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $0 40h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha SELL No 91¢ $22 41h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cha BUY No 94¢ $23 47h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $58 47h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 90¢ $65 2d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $67 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $69 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $72 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $68 2d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $67 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $68 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $68 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $73 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $73 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $63 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.42 · official $64.42 (match) · 1346 history records