Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x73e6…beb0 crypto 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$395 (+3%) realized +$399 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%178W / 125L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$209
14 days+$260
30 days+$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% +$220
sports 27% +$111
other 12% +$27
crypto 6% −$15
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +29.4% +17.1% 69% 33% -5.5%
≤30d 65 +14.6% +3.7% 71% 23% -6.7%
≤90d 303 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 36% -7.3%
all 303 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 36% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 36% -7.3%
10% -20.3% 31% -16.1%
15% -28.0% 28% -24.2%
20% -35.1% 24% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$399
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses178 / 125
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)303 / 304
History coverage70d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? No 98¢ 96¢ $225 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $220 +$5 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $200 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $210 +$5 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $199 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $400 −$29 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $400 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $401 −$9 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $401 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 13 $301 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $312 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$81 +1287%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $353 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $8 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $307 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $318 +$2 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $275 +$43 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $264 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $263 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 10 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 10? Jun 10 $256 +$9 +4%
Spread: Hungary (-2.5) Jun 09 $238 +$19 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 9? Jun 09 $281 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 98¢ $225 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $225 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $220 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $200 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $210 23h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 25h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $190 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 34¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 17¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 6¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 7¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $80 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $19 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $63 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $27 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $22 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $27 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $92 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 91¢ $9 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.32 · official $221.32 (match) · 844 history records