Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x73e7…c504 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,436 (+25%) realized +$1,418 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip
Net edge+90%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$636per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$4,058now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$44
14 days+$887
30 days+$1,372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$22
sports 28% +$1,452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+89.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 6 +153.6% +129.4% 83% 83% +108.6%
≤90d 6 +153.6% +129.4% 83% 83% +108.6%
all 8 +109.9% +89.9% 75% 75% +66.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +89.9% 75% +66.8%
10% +71.7% 62% +50.8%
15% +55.1% 50% +36.2%
20% +39.9% 38% +22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +130% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$83 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.47 per $1 lost it wins $9.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$4,058
Realized+$1,418
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage134d
Avg bet$636
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $4,040 $4,058 +$18 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$44 +44%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $403 +$121 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $92 +$283 +309%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $180 +$566 +314%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $129 −$127 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $149 +$485 +325%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 15 $70 −$40 -57%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $554 +$80 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 96¢ $161 1h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 1h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 1h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 95¢ $83 2h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,596 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $10 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 21¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 17¢ $4 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $4 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $3 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 19¢ $10 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $4 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $10 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $20 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $15 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 54¢ $747 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $60 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $50 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $70 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 3¢ $10 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $10 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 30¢ $5 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 25¢ $15 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $20 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $68 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $149 16d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,058.11 · official $4,058.11 (match) · 38 history records