Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73e8…cd6f sports 591 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$793 (+0%) realized +$637 · open +$156
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%397W / 192L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$2,445est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$884now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days−$4,228
14 days−$4,240
30 days−$11,816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.1% -30.5% 41% 41% -35.3%
≤30d 67 -11.8% -20.2% 51% 48% -30.1%
≤90d 586 +12.3% +1.6% 67% 60% -9.7%
all 589 +12.6% +1.8% 67% 60% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 60% -9.7%
10% -7.9% 57% -18.3%
15% -16.8% 52% -26.2%
20% -25.0% 42% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$405 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$884
Realized+$637
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses397 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$2,445
Open positions2
Markets (closed)589 / 591
History coverage93d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Over 52¢ 53¢ $498 $510 +$12 (+2%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Atlanta Dream 51¢ 83¢ $230 $374 +$144 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $511 −$504 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $503 −$496 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 18 $507 +$289 +57%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $512 +$633 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $510 +$377 +74%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $503 +$647 +129%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $502 +$353 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $510 −$502 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $513 −$504 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $511 −$504 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $505 +$471 +93%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $505 −$498 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $509 +$329 +65%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 16 $502 +$432 +86%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,008 −$997 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $512 −$504 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $502 −$495 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $508 −$501 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $503 −$496 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $116 +$89 +76%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $509 +$388 +76%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $505 −$497 -98%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $661 −$652 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $507 −$498 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $506 −$498 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $503 +$451 +90%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $505 −$498 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $503 −$496 -99%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $503 +$452 +90%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $504 +$369 +73%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $281 +$274 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $502 +$468 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,493 +$1,634 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $1,599 +$1,572 +98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 07 $3,149 −$3,110 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $2,219 −$2,180 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $553 −$540 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $1,644 +$1,501 +91%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 Jun 04 $312 +$283 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 30 $3,225 −$3,180 -99%
Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5 May 29 $227 +$22 +10%
Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $398 +$210 +53%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $1,945 +$177 +9%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 28 $537 −$530 -99%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 27 $134 −$134 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 May 27 $408 −$408 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 27 $480 −$480 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 2.5 May 27 $384 −$384 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 27 $440 −$440 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $1,493 −$1,493 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $505 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 51¢ $233 10h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $511 11h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $503 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $503 31h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $510 33h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $510 34h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 63¢ $507 35h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $512 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $513 35h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $502 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $511 37h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $505 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $505 2d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 62¢ $505 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 53¢ $502 3d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 61¢ $504 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $512 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $509 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $502 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $508 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $503 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 47¢ $505 5d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 56¢ $116 5d
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $661 5d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $507 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 47¢ $506 5d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $509 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 51¢ $505 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $503 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $883.66 · official $883.66 (match) · 2504 history records