Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
73 0x73ed…8741 politics 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$2
economics 4% $0
sports 3% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 8 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 10 -6.1% -15.1% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage245d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $2 $0 -21%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -21%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 17 $19 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 6h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 10h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 10h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 11h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 14h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 16h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 16h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 19h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 20h
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15 187d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $17 187d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 187d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 187d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $19 227d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $49 245d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $49 245d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.12 · official $223.12 (match) · 25 history records