Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
73 0x73ed…2574 other 414 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,361 (-2%) realized −$2,362 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate78%321W / 90L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$41
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,535
crypto 10% −$885
sports 7% −$289
world 2% +$30
culture 1% +$202
politics 0% −$6
tech 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.6% -11.8% 80% 50% -8.7%
≤30d 27 -4.1% -13.2% 81% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 74 -0.7% -10.1% 82% 43% -9.3%
all 411 -3.0% -12.2% 78% 32% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 32% -11.3%
10% -20.6% 13% -19.8%
15% -28.3% 6% -27.5%
20% -35.3% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$152 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$1,301
Realized−$2,362
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses321 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)411 / 414
History coverage179d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $600 $592 −$8 (-1%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $400 $410 +$10 (+3%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$14 +5%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 +$11 +10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$88 +29%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 18 $601 +$11 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$52 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $501 +$22 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $301 +$56 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 12 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $300 +$77 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 08 $600 +$46 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $500 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 08 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $500 +$30 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 06 $100 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 06 $600 +$133 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 06 $800 +$54 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 06 $600 −$86 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 05 $576 +$15 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 01 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 31 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $300 +$84 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $500 +$35 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 29 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 29 $500 +$34 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 28 $400 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 28 $500 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $301 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $300 9h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $100 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $100 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $302 35h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $101 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 97¢ $613 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 95¢ $601 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $301 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $501 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $101 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 77¢ $122 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $523 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $300 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 6d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $501 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $100 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $301 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $301 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 93¢ $112 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,300.63 · official $1,300.63 (match) · 1030 history records