Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x73f4…158e sports 79 markets active 11h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,019 (+5%) realized +$8,019 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate71%56W / 23L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$2,161per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$949est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,431
7 days−$1,172
14 days+$5,396
30 days+$6,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,272
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -17.5% -25.3% 56% 31% -11.4%
≤30d 75 +1.1% -8.5% 69% 33% -5.9%
≤90d 79 +2.2% -7.5% 71% 34% -5.6%
all 79 +2.2% -7.5% 71% 34% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 34% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 27% -14.7%
15% -24.4% 19% -22.9%
20% -31.8% 14% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,709) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$543 vs −$1,007 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,019
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses56 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$949
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2,161
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $10,957 +$43 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $11,295 +$3,448 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3,362 −$417 -12%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $399 +$356 +89%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $302 +$103 +34%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,042 −$2,000 -98%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,603 +$89 +6%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,103 +$111 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $901 +$38 +4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,501 −$2,500 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2,178 −$2,150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,731 +$1,783 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3,229 −$760 -24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3,024 −$3,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9,675 +$3,834 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $8,031 +$1,656 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,459 +$3,541 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,700 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $813 +$926 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $905 +$18 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2,296 +$1,751 +76%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,005 +$158 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2,579 +$3 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,013 −$996 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $451 +$49 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $3,206 +$197 +6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,325 −$1,788 -77%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,895 +$1,986 +69%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $103 +$563 +549%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $1,030 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,224 −$1,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $507 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,501 +$37 +2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2,115 +$665 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,331 −$2,328 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,048 +$939 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2,913 +$492 +17%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,563 +$92 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 28 $3,502 +$71 +2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3,448 +$103 +3%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,002 +$62 +3%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3,401 +$31 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $3,059 +$339 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $4,975 11h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $2,985 11h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $2,997 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $10,554 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $740 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $2,901 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $154 44h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $307 44h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $101 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 30¢ $26 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 30¢ $19 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 42¢ $126 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 42¢ $5 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 42¢ $4 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $119 47h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 74¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 31¢ $1,021 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 29¢ $1,021 2d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 93¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records