Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73f7…33be other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$13
politics 14% −$8
other 3% −$17
sports 1% −$19
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +7.5% -2.8% 18% 6% -6.6%
≤90d 42 -8.6% -17.3% 19% 10% -12.5%
all 55 -6.8% -15.7% 20% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 7% -9.8%
10% -23.7% 7% -18.5%
15% -31.1% 7% -26.3%
20% -37.9% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage596d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $7 +$9 +129%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 +$8 +83%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 08 $13 −$1 -7%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Sabres vs. Senators Apr 06 $11 +$9 +89%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-28.5) Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $75 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $78 −$4 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $78 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $13,519 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $34 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.86 · official $29.86 (match) · 231 history records