Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x73fb…468d other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+8%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$6
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$74
sports 7% −$47
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.0% -40.3% 36% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 12 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -5.4%
≤90d 12 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -5.4%
all 12 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 42% -5.4%
10% -40.4% 42% -14.5%
15% -46.2% 42% -22.7%
20% -51.4% 25% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$35 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $61 +$43 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $28 −$27 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 +$133 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $67 +$32 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $17 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will France win the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $29 2d
Will Argentina win the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $99 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.41 · official $162.41 (match) · 31 history records