Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
73 0x73fb…f8d4 other 47 markets active 7h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$143 (+10%) realized +$143 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate79%34W / 9L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$160
sports 25% −$22
crypto 2% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +12.9% +2.1% 79% 58% -0.3%
≤30d 43 +12.9% +2.1% 79% 58% -0.3%
≤90d 43 +12.9% +2.1% 79% 58% -0.3%
all 43 +12.9% +2.1% 79% 58% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 58% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 42% -9.8%
15% -16.6% 30% -18.5%
20% -24.8% 16% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses34 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage4d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $120 −$52 -43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $80 +$10 +12%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$28 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $111 +$29 +26%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $100 +$13 +13%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $90 +$12 +13%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 +7%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 $0 +49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $82 +$5 +6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 -49%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$2 +5%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $90 +$2 +2%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$10 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 8h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $40 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $28 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $80 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $90 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $80 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 13h
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $100 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $70 17h
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 18h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.95 · official $30.94 (match) · 109 history records