Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73fe…7e03 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$3
other 21% +$1
politics 15% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 15% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 15% 8% -8.9%
all 55 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage456d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 −$4 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $61 +$7 +12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $38 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $23 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 06 $11 $0 -2%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? May 06 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 27 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $8 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 14 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 35m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $28 35m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $47 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $25 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $27 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $3 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $52 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records