Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73ff…0fac sports 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,848 (-1%) realized −$7,848 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%99W / 93L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,260per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$9,249est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,815
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.4% -2.8% 54% 46% -11.0%
≤30d 101 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 46% -15.9%
≤90d 192 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 45% -11.4%
all 192 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 45% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 45% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 28% -19.9%
15% -29.7% 15% -27.6%
20% -36.6% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,016) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,153 vs −$1,376 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,848
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses99 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9,249
Open positions0
Markets (closed)192 / 192
History coverage74d
Avg bet$3,260
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 192 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $182 −$33 -18%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $131 +$54 +41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $91 +$36 +39%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $152 −$64 -42%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $111 −$2 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $90 +$18 +20%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $152 −$59 -39%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 14 $407 −$270 -66%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $273 +$143 +52%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $253 +$15 +6%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $142 +$122 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $151 −$46 -30%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $403 −$212 -53%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $503 −$100 -20%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $404 +$98 +24%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $293 −$140 -48%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $544 −$258 -48%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $707 −$169 -24%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $861 −$141 -16%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $1,702 −$842 -50%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $1,263 +$419 +33%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $1,113 +$136 +12%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $1,416 −$308 -22%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $960 +$490 +51%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $627 +$333 +53%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $807 −$173 -22%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $333 −$92 -28%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $663 +$236 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 03 $492 +$171 +35%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $433 +$56 +13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $342 +$95 +28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 03 $282 +$54 +19%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $232 +$47 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $181 +$53 +29%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $252 −$83 -33%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $403 −$150 -37%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $352 +$46 +13%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $302 +$28 +9%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 31 $333 −$2 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $506 −$187 -37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $608 −$139 -23%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 May 30 $96 −$12 -13%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $283 −$192 -68%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 May 30 $252 +$27 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 30 $191 +$72 +38%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $126 +$62 +49%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 29 $86 +$39 +46%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $122 −$36 -30%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $81 +$42 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 60¢ $148 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 72¢ $182 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 100¢ $186 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 70¢ $131 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 90¢ $127 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $91 29h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 24¢ $0 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 38¢ $87 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $152 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $151 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 64¢ $109 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 64¢ $111 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $108 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 83¢ $90 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 41¢ $93 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $152 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 15¢ $136 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 43¢ $407 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $273 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 70¢ $84 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 68¢ $47 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 71¢ $137 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $253 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $142 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 52¢ $105 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 73¢ $151 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 33¢ $191 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 68¢ $403 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 57¢ $403 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 534 history records