Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7402…3bdf other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$230 (-10%) realized −$221 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$341
14 days−$341
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$136
crypto 18% −$104
sports 14% −$55
world 8% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 25% -33.0%
≤30d 20 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 25% -33.0%
≤90d 20 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 25% -33.0%
all 21 -3.5% -12.7% 24% 24% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 24% -33.9%
10% -21.1% 24% -40.3%
15% -28.7% 24% -46.0%
20% -35.7% 24% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$56 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$955
Realized−$221
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage290d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $305 $290 −$15 (-5%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 11¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $193 −$74 -38%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $122 −$118 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$195 -98%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$125 +125%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$205 +334%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $87 −$36 -42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$72 +350%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 31m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 29¢ $119 33m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 36m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $142 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $15 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $9 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $37 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 6h
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $126 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $77 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $49 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 21h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 21h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes $2 22h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $91 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $102 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $955.42 · official $956.84 (match) · 71 history records