Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7403…b24a sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days−$83
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$18
other 40% −$64
crypto 2% +$3
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -4.1% -13.2% 64% 18% -5.4%
≤30d 94 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 22% -9.5%
≤90d 104 -15.3% -23.4% 52% 25% -9.3%
all 110 -14.4% -22.5% 52% 26% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 26% -9.3%
10% -30.0% 18% -18.0%
15% -36.7% 14% -25.9%
20% -42.9% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 53
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage114d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $101 +$11 +11%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $327 +$20 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 −$4 -4%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $50 −$10 -19%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $25 +$12 +47%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $25 +$1 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $158 −$64 -41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $221 −$51 -23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 +$47 +58%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $145 −$42 -28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $232 −$16 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$9 +59%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$11 -22%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 −$9 -54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$5 -6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $115 −$5 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $145 +$45 +31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $45 +$2 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$15 +100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $48 +$2 +4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$6 -64%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $341 −$1 -0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $25 +$1 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $44 −$4 -9%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $125 +$7 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $31 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $110 +$3 +3%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 19¢ $2 25m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 17¢ $2 25m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $59 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $53 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $0 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $51 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $55 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $50 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $52 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $45 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $37 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $22 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $50 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $53 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $50 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $25 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $2 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $2 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $25 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $42 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $1 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 34¢ $6 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $51 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 87¢ $50 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 87¢ $50 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 850 history records