Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x7403…7b39 tech 5 markets active 10d ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-7%) realized −$40 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 43% −$49
culture 42% +$12
other 15% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -28.7%
≤90d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -28.7%
all 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 50% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 50% -28.7%
10% -47.8% 25% -35.5%
15% -52.8% 25% -41.8%
20% -57.5% 0% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage13d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$16 +43%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.79 · official $53.79 (match) · 11 history records