Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7405…1898 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$96 (-23%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$63
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$32
sports 43% −$84
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.7% -29.2% 31% 31% -29.8%
≤30d 21 -28.5% -35.3% 29% 24% -34.7%
≤90d 21 -28.5% -35.3% 29% 24% -34.7%
all 21 -28.5% -35.3% 29% 24% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 24% -34.7%
10% -41.5% 19% -40.9%
15% -47.1% 10% -46.6%
20% -52.3% 10% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage12d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$7 -34%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$9 -59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $27 −$22 -79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$31 -76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -39%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 +$9 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 −$26 -46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $28 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $39 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $24 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over $0 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over $6 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 SELL Over $6 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $2 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Over $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records