Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x7411…086a other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$771 (+9%) realized +$851 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$881per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$2,920now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1,170
sports 46% +$1,774
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 33% +4.5%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 33% +4.5%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 33% +4.5%
all 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 33% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 33% +4.5%
10% -17.9% 33% -5.5%
15% -25.9% 33% -14.6%
20% -33.1% 17% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$628 vs −$401 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2,920
Realized+$851
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$881
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1,000 $982 −$18 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1,000 $958 −$42 (-4%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $500 $491 −$9 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $500 $489 −$11 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,023 +$1,766 +173%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $513 +$91 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,028 −$102 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,050 +$28 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $512 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,026 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,172 12h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $617 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $578 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $513 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,023 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $914 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $1,988 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 4d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 8¢ $106 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2,050 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,028 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,920.45 · official $2,920.80 (match) · 16 history records