Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7412…ee8b
crypto · 1429 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,522 -62%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$208 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses840 / 575
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1415 / 1429
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day179.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1415 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$585
7 days−$459
14 days−$299
30 days−$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 23¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Wizards Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$2 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$425
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 696 -28.0% -34.8% 44% 42% -42.5%
≤30d 1415 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 56% -17.0%
≤90d 1415 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 56% -17.0%
all 1415 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 56% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover179.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 56% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 51% -25.0%
15% -27.3% 39% -32.2%
20% -34.4% 24% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.37 (match) · 3500 history records