Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:38:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7413…4b09 other 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,346 (+92%) realized +$16,536 · open −$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%82W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$1,024
sports 15% +$107
world 8% −$108
crypto 3% −$547
tech 2% −$208
finance 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 37% -37.4%
≤30d 135 -30.1% -36.8% 23% 22% -33.6%
≤90d 312 -27.1% -34.1% 26% 24% -18.3%
all 312 -27.1% -34.1% 26% 24% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 24% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 20% -26.1%
15% -46.1% 18% -33.2%
20% -51.4% 17% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$33 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$16,536
Unrealized−$190
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses82 / 230
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions8
Markets (closed)312 / 320
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 13¢ $122 $65 −$58 (-47%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 49¢ 19¢ $99 $38 −$61 (-62%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $2 $8 +$5 (+200%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-74%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $239 +$28 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $58 +$48 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $92 +$186 +202%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $39 +$32 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$19 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $64 +$135 +211%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $58 +$7 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $68 −$4 -6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $9 +$9 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $185 −$156 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $409 −$409 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $210 −$210 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $72 −$33 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $383 +$79 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $282 +$99 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $364 +$39 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $144 +$21 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$89 +631%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$163 +529%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $79 +$76 +96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $166 −$31 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $102 −$102 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$75 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $42 +$44 +103%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $87 +$179 +206%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $42 −$41 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $276 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $24 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $31 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $207 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $99 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $28 13h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $162 13h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 15h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 16h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 20h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 20h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $168 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $77 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $22 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $49 23h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 24h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 24h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 39h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 39h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 39h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 40h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.84 · official $124.84 (match) · 3500 history records