Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
74 0x7418…251f other 1226 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$43,034 (+10%) realized +$40,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate74%903W / 323L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day34.3pace
Fees−$341est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,220
7 days+$7,468
14 days+$8,392
30 days+$18,384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$30,327
sports 27% +$9,314
crypto 2% −$454
world 1% +$873
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +8.6% -1.7% 56% 15% +2.6%
≤30d 174 +29.9% +17.5% 75% 36% +2.4%
≤90d 994 +24.4% +12.6% 74% 37% -0.2%
all 1226 +24.5% +12.6% 74% 38% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.6% 38% -1.0%
10% ← realistic here +1.9% 24% -10.4%
15% -8.0% 16% -19.1%
20% -17.0% 12% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$56 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses903 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$341
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1226 / 1226
History coverage100d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day34.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1226 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,209 −$337 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,010 −$145 -2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $93 +$5 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2,003 +$81 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,099 −$106 -3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,001 −$5 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,001 +$38 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,176 −$372 -9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 +$4 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $126 +$3 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,001 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $171 +$4 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $737 −$47 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $865 −$17 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,017 −$136 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $261 +$3 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6,358 +$8,025 +126%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $123 +$16 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4,006 +$212 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,003 +$59 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,003 −$71 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $145 +$6 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $124 +$107 +87%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $170 +$191 +112%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4,006 +$118 +3%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $79 −$76 -96%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $659 −$176 -27%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $153 +$96 +63%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $295 +$7 +2%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $544 −$23 -4%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$8 +453%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $62 +$1 +2%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $211 +$4 +2%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 +$5 +13%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $665 +$84 +13%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $981 −$31 -3%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $508 +$196 +39%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $279 +$21 +8%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $951 +$229 +24%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $331 +$33 +10%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $1,506 +$201 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 89¢ $1,097 48m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $1,031 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $3,824 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 92¢ $3,868 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,012 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,014 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $93 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $2,003 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $2,003 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 64¢ $127 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 61¢ $124 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 94¢ $1,996 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $3,824 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,013 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,015 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 94¢ $2,004 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2,084 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 95¢ $2,003 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,224 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $1,996 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $216 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,039 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 7¢ $51 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $30 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 22¢ $3 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 94¢ $28 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3456 history records