Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x7418…3f31 other 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,192 (-3%) realized −$3,283 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%128W / 137L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$377est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$319
7 days+$1,168
14 days+$1,168
30 days−$5,156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2,831
sports 32% −$6,182
crypto 8% −$921
world 7% +$993
politics 3% −$33
economics 2% −$114
tech 0% −$22
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +21.2% +9.6% 68% 64% +4.3%
≤30d 34 +12.5% +1.8% 62% 59% -39.3%
≤90d 144 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 38% -12.9%
all 265 +0.2% -9.4% 48% 35% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 35% -12.5%
10% -18.0% 25% -20.8%
15% -26.0% 15% -28.5%
20% -33.2% 9% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$116 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$1,540
Realized−$3,283
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses128 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$377
Open positions4
Markets (closed)265 / 273
History coverage232d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 96¢ $397 $526 +$129 (+33%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 69¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 78¢ 73¢ $400 $374 −$26 (-6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 54¢ 50¢ $252 $236 −$16 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $590 −$22 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $200 −$6 -3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$66 -66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 −$6 -3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,380 +$255 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $500 −$121 -24%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $220 −$113 -52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $400 +$69 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$55 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $250 −$6 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$58 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$80 +40%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$43 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $220 +$100 +46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $200 +$100 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $403 −$72 -18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 +$62 +31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $303 +$4 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$173 +85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $223 +$132 +59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$19 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$54 +27%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$337 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$88 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $6,409 −$6,348 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $187 −$7 -4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $400 −$222 -56%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $301 +$108 +36%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 May 21 $400 −$201 -50%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $607 +$347 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $202 −$153 -76%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $1,004 +$79 +8%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 18 $201 +$65 +32%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,008 +$317 +32%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 17 $201 −$4 -2%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $201 −$2 -1%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $201 +$3 +1%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $709 +$418 +59%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $201 −$5 -2%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $403 +$53 +13%
Will Drake feature PARTYNEXTDOOR on ICEMAN? May 15 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Drake feature Central Cee on ICEMAN? May 15 $704 +$85 +12%
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN? May 15 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $503 +$130 +26%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 May 14 $903 +$41 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $400 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $471 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $195 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $194 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $295 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $404 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $200 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $34 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $194 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 54¢ $204 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 52¢ $53 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 78¢ $404 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $96 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $200 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1,380 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $379 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $200 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $300 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $107 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $200 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $244 29h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $220 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $250 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $194 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $200 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $200 31h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $200 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $280 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,539.64 · official $1,539.70 (match) · 850 history records